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【经济参考报】著名经济学家刘世锦: 中速增长期要做实做优中国经济

2018-03-06浏览次数: 511

  “强政府+竞争”是中国成功的秘诀之一和特有制度优势,应当与时俱进,重塑、提升高质量发展的地方竞争机制。

  ——liushijin



  zhongguofazhanyanjiujijinhuifulishizhang、guowuyuanfazhanyanjiuzhongxinyuanfuzhurenliushijinjinrizaichuxidishisanjiebeijingjinbohuizhizhongguojinrongnianduluntanshibiaoshi,2017nianzhongguojingjiyijingchudi,zhongsuzengzhangpingtaichubuqueli,jianglaihuizhubujinruzhongsuzengzhangqi,yejiushiyougaosuzengzhangjieduanzhuanxianggaozhiliangfazhanjieduan。zaizhongsuzengzhangpingtai,zhongguojingjichengdalxingjiaxiaowxingbodong,zengsukezai5%—6%zhijianchixu10nianzuoyou,dangqianzuizhongyaodeshizuoshizuoyouerfeirenweizuogaozhongguojingji。liushijinrenwei,zhuanrugaozhiliangfazhanjieduanshouxianyaoguofangfanhuajiejinrongfengxianzheiyiguan,xianzaizhuyaoshijiejuedifangzhaiwenti。

  中国经济中速增长平台初步确立

bb滚球王  shijiudayihou,gedijijixinggaozhang,youchuxianle“dagankuaishang”deqidai,duici,liushijinbiaoshi,“dagankuaishang”benshenmeiyoucuo,guanjianshiganshenme、shangshenme。shibasuduzaigaoshangquma?shijiudabaogaojiangdehenmingque,“bbgunqiuwangguojingjiyiyougaosuzengzhangjieduanzhuanxianggaozhiliangfazhanjieduan”,“tuidongjingjifazhanzhiliangbiange、xiaolvbiange、donglibiange”,“jianjuedahaofangfanhuajiezhongdafengxian、jingzhuntuopin、wuranfangzhidegongjianzhan”,dengdeng。ruhezaibaochikezhengqudezengzhangsududetongshi,batigaojingjizengzhangzhilianghexiaoyidetiaozhanzhuanhuanweixindefazhanjiyu,zheixieshiqingbijiandanditigaosudunandugengda,gengxuyaoyousuozuowei,zuochengleyehuiyougengdadechengjiugan。

  liushijincheng,xianzaidefazhanjieduanhebbgunqiuwangguoquyizhitandezhongguojingjiyougaosuzengzhangzhuanruzhongsuzengzhangjieduanzaineihanshangshiyizhide。2016nian,bbgunqiuwangjiutichuzhongguojingjiyijingjiejindibuhuokaishichudi,zhengzhubujinruzhongsuzengzhangpingtai。congganggangguoqude2017nianqingkuangkan,zheigepanduandedaoqueren。keyishuo,zhongguojingjizhongsuzengzhangpingtaichubuqueli。bbgunqiuwangdangshitichuzheigepanduanzhuyaojiyulianggefangmian:

  congxuqiucelaikan,guoqudaidonggaozengzhangdezhuyaoshigaotouzi,ergaotouzizhuyaoshisandaxuqiulaiyuan,chukou、jichusheshi、fangdichan,suchengwei“sanzhixue”zi,zheisanzhixuezijibenshangchudile,gaozengzhangyejiutingzhile。tebieshifangdichanshouguanzhujiaoduo,bbgunqiuwangdeguandianshifangdichandelishixuqiufengzhizai2013、2014nianjiuyijingchuxianle。2016nianyijidu,dangshibaokuobeijingzaineideyixianchengshifangjiashangzhang,daidonglefangdichantouzidehuisheng,dangshibbgunqiuwangdeguandianhenmingque,zheijiushiyigeduanqidexianxiang,haidechaoxiazou。fangdichantouzidagaizaiguoqujigeyuetichujiageyinsuyihoushijishangyijingfuzengzhang,suoyizheisanzhixuezidouluodile,xuqiucechudile。

bb滚球王  conggongjicelaikan,guoquliangsanniandeshijian,quchannengqudejijichengxiao,zhijiedezhengjujiushippijingguo54geyuedefuzengzhanghou,zai2016nian9yuehuifuzhengzengzhang,ranhoujiagezhujianshangzhang,qunianzhangdehenxiong,duoshaochuxianyidianpaomo。gongyeqiyelirunyejingguoyinianduodefuzengzhanghouyoufuzhuanzheng,congtongjijugongbudeshujukan,zhangdebucuo。suoyi,yinggaishuoconggongjicelaikan,jibenyechudile。

bb滚球王  congquniankaishi,suizhezhongguojingjizouhao,suduyousuohuisheng,youguandianrenweizhongguojingjijiangchudifandan,chuxianbijiaodadehuisheng,shenzhizhonghuigaozengzhangdeguocheng。biru,yourentichu,zhongguojingji7%yishangzengzhanghaikeyichixuxiangdangzhangyiduanshijian,shenzhihaiyougengjialeguandeyuce。bbgunqiuwangdeguandianhenmingque,“chudi”dequeqiehanyishizhongguojingjibuzaimingxianxiahuale,kaishijinruzhongsuwendingzengzhangde“xinpingtai”,danshiyebuhuidafufandan,chuxiansuowei“v”xinghuozhe“u”xingfandan,gengbuhuizhongfuguoqugaozengzhangdeguidao。dangran,ruguocaiquyixieteshudecijizhengce,jingjizengsuduanqikenenghuikuaisushangqu,danshigujiyejiuchixuyilianggejidu,chaobuguoyinian,erqieyidingshidaqiyihouhuiyoudaluo,zuihoushizhenggejingjishoudaoshanghai。

  中速增长期最重要的是做实做优而非人为做高经济

  zhongguojingjiweishenmeyaoconggaosuzengzhangzhuanxiangzhongsuzengzhang?zheishijishangshibutongdezengzhangpingtaizhijiandezhuanhuan,zheishiyigejingjixueshangsuoweidezhouqililunjieshibuledewenti。yinweizheizhongbianhuashidongyajingjiti,baokuozhongguozainei,houfazhuiganxingjiyashizengzhangyihouyizhongteyoudexianxiang,yuanyinzhuyaoyousandian。

  diyi,zhongduanxuqiu,baokuofangdichanzainei,haiyouzhongyaodegongyechanpin,chuxianlelishixuqiufengzhi。lishixuqiufengzhijiushizheizhongxuqiu、zheizhongchanpinxuqiuliangzuida,huozhezengzhangsuduzuigaodeneigedianyijingchuxian,chuxianyihoujiushiyigehuidiaodetaishi;dier,renkouhelaodonglidezonglianghejiegoufashengzhongyaobianhua;disan,ziyuanhuanjingyueshubianjielinjin,zuidianxingdelizijiushiwumai,dangwumaiyanzhongdaozaoshangdoubuyuanyichumenshi,ziyuanhuanjingdebianjiehedixianyijingpengzhele。suoyi,dangzheixieyinsudouchuxianhou,gaosuzengzhangzhuanxiangzhongsuzengzhangdepingtaishibirande,shifuheguilvde。

  “qunianxiabannianjingjizhisuoyichuxianfandan,zhuyaoshiyoucunhuohechukouhuishengyinqide,danzhongduanxuqiuhezongxuqiurengzaixiaxing。”liushijinjieshishuo,gongjicefangmian,chanchusuiranzengjiadanshengchanxingtouzibingweihuisheng(ruminjiantouzizengsurengdimi),ershizhuyaoyilaiyuchannengliyonglvdetigao。

bb滚球王  zhanwang2018nianzhongguohongguanjingjizoushi,liushijinfenxi,jinnianshangbannian,zhongduanxuqiukenenghuiyouyigejijiexinghuisheng。danshi2018nianzongxuqiuzhongzuidadebuquedingyinsushijichusheshitouzi,zheibufentouzizaizhongduanxuqiuzhongzuida,qibeihoushijishangshidifangzhaizaizhicheng。erdifangzhaiqiashixianzaifangfanjinrongfengxianzhongbijiaozhongyaodeyixiangrenwu,ruguofangkongfengxianhezhilidifangzhengfuzhaiwudelidujiada,jichusheshidetouzizengsuyoukenenghuidiao,huidiaoyihouzhongsuzengzhangdepingtaizhongxinhuiyousuoxiayi。yucitongshi,cunhuohechukouchuxiandidian,shifouhuishengyijiruhehuishengrengyoubuquedingxing。shengchanxingtouziyichudiwei,youkenengzhubuhuisheng,chengweijingjizengzhangzhongdejijililiang,danyebunengqidaixiangyiwanggaosuzengzhangjieduanneiyangdafuhuisheng,anzhaoguojijingyan,datishangyejiushi5%zuoyoudezengsu。cunhuo、chukouheshengchanxingtouzizhubujinruhuishengqi,jiangduijichusheshitouzijiansuxingchengduichong。“bbgunqiuwangpanduan2018nianzhongguojingjizengsubuhuizaichuxiangaozengzhang,kenenghuiyousuoxiadiao,danshixiwangfudubuhuitaida。zhongguojingjijianglaihuizhubujinruyigezhongsuzengzhangqi,zheigezhongsuzengzhangqishidalxingjiaxiaowxingbodongdezhuangtai。”

  liushijinjinyibuzhichu,ruguoshuo2017nianshizhongsuzengzhangpingtaideyanzhengqidehua,2018nianjiangshiyigediaozhengqi,zhuyaoshijichusheshitouzikenenghuiyouyidingfududediaozheng。zheiyangzhongguojingjihuijinruxindezengzhangpingtai,bbgunqiuwangxiwangzheigebodongfuduhuixiaoyidian,wendingxingnenggouzengqiang。“zhongsuzengzhangjieduanbushibujiangsudu、buyaosudu,danbunengzaigaogdpguashuai,bunengrenweidituigaozengzhangsudu,yingbafazhandejichuzuodegengshiyixie,zheibulunduiduanqifangfancaizhengjinrongfengxian,haishiduizengqiangzhongzhangqifazhandongneng,doushibiyaode。dangqianzuizhongyaodeshizuoshizuoyouerfeirenweizuogaozhongguojingji,jutilaishuo,jiushiyaojiangfengxian、jipaomo、zengdongneng、wenxiaoyi,tigaozengzhangdewendingxinghekechixuxing。”

  jiangfengxianzhuyaoshizhijiangdidifangzhengfuzhaiwufengxian、bufenqiyeguogaodegangganlvheqitafangmiandecaizhengjinrongfengxian。jipaomozhuyaoshizhijiyixianchengshifangdichanpaomohedazongshangpinpaomo。zengdongnengzhuyaoshizhizengjiashitijingjizhuanxingshengjihechuangxinfazhandedongneng。wenxiaoyifangmianxuyaotebieqiangdiaoyixia,2016nianxiabannianyilai,qiyexiaoyimingxianhuisheng,danzhuyaojizhongzaishangyouxingye,fenbubupingheng。yingzhengquzaixingyejianxingchengjiaoweipinghenghewendingdeyinglifenbu,zheiyangjiukeyiweijiangdiqiyegangganlvtigongyoulitiaojian。

bb滚球王  liushijinrenwei,zhongguojingjizengzhangsuduhaihuiyousuoxiayi,tebieshizhongsuzengzhangdepingtaihuiyousuoxiayi。danshidao2020nianquanmianjianchengxiaokangshehui,jinhou3nianmeinianzengzhang6.3%jiukeyishixianlianggefanfandemubiao。ciwai,zhongsuzengzhangdepingtaidezhongxinkenengdiaozhengdao5%—6%,zheigesuduyijingbudile。“bbgunqiuwangrenwei,bbgunqiuwangjiangsududegaodiyidingyaokanbeijing,kansuochudezengzhangjieduan。guoqubbgunqiuwangchuzaigaosuzengzhangqi,neigejieduanjingjideqianzaizengzhanglvshi10%,ruguozhizengzhangle7%,neijiujiaodisuzengzhang;zhongsuzengzhangqiyihou,kenengqianzaizengzhanglvjiushi5%zuoyou,yekenengshi4%—5%zhijian,zengzhangsududadao5%—6%jiusuangaosuzengzhang,suoyiyihoujiangdisuzengzhangyidingyaohezengzhangjieduanlianxiqilai。”liushijinqiangdiao。

  高质量发展阶段须过防范化解金融风险关

bb滚球王  “zhongsuzengzhangpingtaixingchengyihou,genjuguojijingyan,zhongguojingjiyinggainenggoubaochi10niannaizhigengzhangshijiandewendingzengzhang,zheiweibbgunqiuwangshixianlianggeyibainiandefendoumubiaodaxialejianshiwengudejichu。”liushijinrenwei,bbgunqiuwangyaozhuanrugaozhiliangfazhanjieduan,fangfanhuajiejinrongfengxianzheiyiguanbixuyaoguo。congguojijingyanlaikan,zhuanxingzuichenggongdejingjiti,baokuoriben、hanguo,tamenconggaosuzengzhangjieduanguodudaozhongsuzengzhangjieduan,doujinglilejinrongfengxian,huozhemouzhongleixingdejinrongweiji。“yinweijinrongtiaojianzaigaosuzengzhangjieduandaozhongdisuzengzhangjieduanshibuyiyangde,yidingyaoyouyigedadediaozheng。”

bb滚球王  liushijinzhichu,suiranguoquzhongguojinrongtixiyefashengguoyixiewenti,danshizuizhongdoupinganguolaile。danshiyaozhuyi,guoqushigaosuzengzhangqi,zaigaosuzengzhangqiyouxishou、huajie、houtuicaizhengjinrongfengxiandenenglihekongjian。baokuoshangshiji90niandaihouqi,jidaxingchenglizichanguanlibbgunqiuwang,chulileyixiebuliangzichan,doubucuo,danzheibushibiedebianhaole,ershigongchang、shebeibuxingle,dandizhiqianle,zheihegaosuzengzhangjinmilianxizaiyiqi。xianzaizheigetiaojianhaicunzaima?bucunzaile。gaosuzengzhangqikenengbushifengxian,xianzaijiukenengbianchengfengxian。“zengzhangjieduanfashengbianhuahou,fengxianchuxiandetiaojianyefashenglehendabianhua。suoyishijiudabaogaotichubafangfanhuajiezhongdafengxianzuoweisandagongjianzhanzhishou,jinrongfengxian,tebieshidifangzhaidewentiyinggaiyinqigaoduguanzhu。”liushijinshuo。

  liushijinshuo,fangfanhuajiezhongdajinrongfengxian,difangzhaiwentishipaizaiqianmiande。difangzhaishifuheguifande“mingzhai”,zheigeguimomuqianshikekongde,wentizaiyuyinxingzhaiwu。zuijinjinian,geditongguodifangzhuanxiangzijin、chanyetouzijijin,tebieshitongguoppp(zhengfuheshehuizibenhezuo)xingchengleyixieshishishangxuyaodifangzhengfuzuihoudoudi,chengdanchanghaizerendezhaiwu,zheixieyinxingzhaiwuguimonanyiguji,youxiedifangdeyinxingzhaiwushenzhiyijingmingxianchaoguo“mingzhai”。zheifangmiandefengxianyinsujileiyouxieyijingxianlu。

bb滚球王  duiyuruhechuzhidifangzhai,liushijinjichulezijidefangan:

  diyi,wenganggan。jianggangganshijishangshiyaoduizhenggejingjitixizuozhongdadiaozheng,yincishouxianyaowenzhu,bunengzaijixujiaganggan,jiadafengxianyinhuan。dier,ruanzhelu。yaofangzhichuzhibudangyinfaxindefengxian。disan,xiajuexinjiejuegejizhengfu、guoqiyusuanruanyueshudewenti。zheishigaigezhichujiutichudewenti,daoxianzaihaimeiyoujiejue,suoyizheiyicizhongyangtaiduhenmingque——bujiuzhu。zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,difangzhengfuketongguoshoumaizichan、shousuozichanfuzhaibiaodefangshihaizhai。conggengzhangqilaikan,haishiyaotantaoyishichangweijichudegonggongpintouzibbgunqiuwang。gonggongpintouziyexuyaorongziqudao,baokuopppxiangmudeshichanghuajiaoyi,budongchanxintuodengdeng。disi,genjugaozhiliangfazhandeyaoqiu,shulizhengquedezhengjiguan、suduguan。difanggaotouzizuizhongyaodemudehaishibagdpgaoshangqu,haishigdpguashuaizheiyangyigezhengjiguan。difangzhengfuyinggaimingbai,haishiyaoanzhaozijinenggoutongguozhengchangtujingrongdaodezijinguimolaijuedingbbgunqiuwangguimo。weilekuaisutigaojingjizengzhangsuduerdaliangjiezhaibiranhuijiadajinrongfengxian。congduanqilaikan,jishijingjizengsushigaogaole,danshibingbukechixu,yihousudukenengdiaodegengdi,tiqiantouzhileweilaidezengzhangqianli,zheishiyigezhangqidebijiaojunhengdefazhanguocheng。yujinghebbgunqiuwang(oecd)guojiaxiangbi,liushijinjianyi,buzaigaogdpguashuai,ershigengduozhongshijiuye、zhiliangxiaoyi、fengxianfangkong、wendingxing、kechixuxing,xuyaotansuokexingdezhibiaotixi。“zheibushibuyaogdp,ershiyaozhangshijian、gaozhiliang、gaoxiaolv、wushuifen、kechixudijinkenengzhengqudaogaosudu,gdpjiangshiyigeyucexinghuojieguoxingdezhibiao。”

  liushijinzhichu,“qiangzhengfu+jingzheng”shizhongguochenggongdemijuezhiyiheteyouzhiduyoushi,yingdangyushijujin,zhongsu、tishenggaozhiliangfazhandedifangjingzhengjizhi。jutieryan,conggdpyouxiandaojujiaogaozhiliangfazhan,yaozheyanyuyixiajifangmiandeneirong: cujinchanyezhuanxingshengjideyingshangfazhanhuanjingdejingzheng;peiyuchuangxinhuanjing,jujichuangxinziyuan,chengweiquyuchuangxinzhongxinhechuangxinxingchengshidejingzheng;jixiyinzhonggaojishengchanyaosu,youxingchenghelifengong;bbgunqiuwangdejingzheng;“rangrenmenshenghuogengmeihao”dechengshifazhanmoshijingzheng;yirenminweizhongxin,chuangzaoxing、baorongxing、wendingxingneizaiyizhideshehuizhilifangshijingzheng。“yingdangyunxudifangyoujiaodadezixuandongzuodekongjian,yunxuyougexing、youchabie、yunxushicuo,zaishidianzhongtuiguanghaodezhengce。”


yuanwenlianjie: http://www.jjckb.cn/2018-01/31/c_136937278.htm


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